Singapore Grand Prix2026 round 17 · won by Verstappen
Before practice18%pick Antonelli ✗
After practice11%pick Leclerc ✗
After qualifying41%pick Verstappen ✓
Archived forecast, exactly as it was published. Latest forecast · All past races
Round 16 · 2026 season
Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia
Race finished Verstappen won. The forecast gave 70%.
Most likely winner
Max Verstappen
Red Bull · starts P1
70%
chance to win
Chance to winResult
Verstappen70%P1
Antonelli17%P2
Hamilton10%P3
Leclerc1%P4
Russell1%P20
Norris1%P9
Hadjar<1%P5
Piastri<1%P6
0%25%50%75%100%
Each percentage is that driver's share of wins in 10,000 simulated races, blended with the ranking's own odds. The nearer a car is to the chequered flag, the likelier the win.
- Before practice
- After practice
- After qualifying
- Race result
A new forecast is logged at each step of the weekend and graded once the race is run. How it works
Race forecast
The ten drivers expected to finish highest, from 10,000 simulated races. Win, podium, top 5 and top 10 are all counted from the same simulated finishing orders, so they always agree with each other.
#DriverGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10Result
1
Max VerstappenVerstappen
Red Bull
P1
69.8%
93%
94%
94%
P1
2
Andrea Kimi AntonelliAntonelli
Mercedes
P3Q4
17.4%
90%
96%
97%
P2
3
Lewis HamiltonHamilton
Ferrari
P2
9.8%
77%
94%
95%
P3
4
George RussellRussell
Mercedes
P7Q8
0.8%
12%
66%
97%
P20
5
Charles LeclercLeclerc
Ferrari
P4Q5
1.1%
13%
59%
93%
P4
6
Isack HadjarHadjar
Red Bull
P8Q3
0.4%
5%
39%
96%
P5
7
Lando NorrisNorris
McLaren
P5Q6
0.5%
7%
34%
95%
P9
8
Oscar PiastriPiastri
McLaren
P6Q7
0.2%
2%
14%
96%
P6
9
Pierre GaslyGasly
Alpine
P9
<0.1%
<1%
1%
50%
P16
10
Liam LawsonLawson
RB
P11
<0.1%
<1%
<1%
38%
P7
Q marks where a car qualified when a penalty moved its start.
Qualifying forecastPredicted order
The top ten of the qualifying forecast, made before the session, with where each driver actually starts. The race forecast above uses the real grid.
#DriverPoleTop 5Top 10Starts
1
Lando NorrisNorris
McLaren
21.5%
81%
>99%
P5
2
George RussellRussell
Mercedes
20.1%
79%
99%
P7
3
Max VerstappenVerstappen
Red Bull
11.9%
62%
98%
P1
4
Lewis HamiltonHamilton
Ferrari
9.1%
52%
96%
P2
5
Andrea Kimi AntonelliAntonelli
Mercedes
9.1%
52%
96%
P3
6
Oscar PiastriPiastri
McLaren
9.0%
52%
96%
P6
7
Charles LeclercLeclerc
Ferrari
8.8%
49%
95%
P4
8
Isack HadjarHadjar
Red Bull
3.2%
20%
70%
P8
9
Pierre GaslyGasly
Alpine
1.4%
10%
43%
P9
10
Carlos SainzSainz
Williams
0.7%
5%
25%
P13
Championship projectionafter round 15
Antonelli leads Russell by 66 points with 208 still available over 8 races and 1 sprint. The earliest it can be settled is round 18. Projected from 10,000 simulated seasons. The range under each total covers 8 in 10.
Drivers
DriverNowProjectedTitle
1
Antonelli
Mercedes
302
432393–468
98.2%
2
Russell
Mercedes
236
358320–396
1.7%
3
Hamilton
Ferrari
199
271238–308
<0.1%
4
Verstappen
Red Bull
163
270230–311
0.1%
5
Leclerc
Ferrari
179
259224–298
<0.1%
Constructors
ConstructorNowProjectedTitle
1
Mercedes
538
790728–848
99.9%
2
Ferrari
378
531472–594
0.1%
3
McLaren
306
445389–505
<0.1%
4
Red Bull
263
426367–489
<0.1%
5
RB
83
11789–152
out
Read chances above 95% as very likely, not certain. When past seasons were replayed, projections that sure came true 14 times in 14, too few to tell 98% from 99.9%. How it was tested
Points after each round for the top five drivers. Solid lines are results so far, dashed lines the projection, and each shaded band the range 8 in 10 simulated seasons fall inside.
Swipe the chart sideways to see the projection.
AntonelliRussellHamiltonVerstappenLeclerc
Track record
Every forecast is saved before the session and graded after the race.
Live forecasts
The chance the forecast gave the eventual winner at each step of the weekend, and whether its pick was right. Select a race to see its full forecast beside the result.
Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia2026 round 16 · won by Verstappen
Before practice13%pick Russell ✗
After practicenot available for this race
After qualifying70%pick Verstappen ✓
Azerbaijan Grand Prix2026 round 15 · won by Russell
Before practice11%pick Antonelli ✗
After practicenot available for this race
After qualifying54%pick Russell ✓
Before going live, it was tested on 65 past races, each forecast using only the races before it: its pick after qualifying won 44, and backing the car on pole won 39. How good is it?