Singapore Grand Prix2026 round 17 · won by Verstappen
Before practice18%pick Antonelli ✗
After practice11%pick Leclerc ✗
After qualifying41%pick Verstappen ✓
Archived forecast, exactly as it was published. Latest forecast · All past races
Round 15 · 2026 season
Azerbaijan Grand Prix
Race finished Russell won. The forecast gave 54%.
Archived forecast from an earlier version of the probability pipeline, in which some columns were calculated separately from the finishing-order distribution. It is shown unchanged for the record. Current forecasts read every figure from one consistent distribution.
Most likely winner
George Russell
Mercedes · starts P1
54%
chance to win
Chance to winResult
Russell54%P1
Leclerc17%P4
Piastri16%P13
Antonelli7%P5
Hamilton2%P6
Norris2%P19
Verstappen2%P2
Gasly<1%P18
0%25%50%75%100%
Each percentage is that driver's share of wins in 10,000 simulated races, blended with the ranking's own odds. The nearer a car is to the chequered flag, the likelier the win.
- Before practice
- After practice
- After qualifying
- Race result
A new forecast is logged at each step of the weekend and graded once the race is run. How it works
Race forecast
The ten drivers expected to finish highest, from 10,000 simulated races.
#DriverGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10Result
1
George RussellRussell
Mercedes
P1
54.2%
82%
83%
84%
P1
2
Oscar PiastriPiastri
McLaren
P3
16.1%
77%
85%
87%
P13
3
Pierre GaslyGasly
Alpine
P7
0.3%
6%
34%
95%
P18
4
Charles LeclercLeclerc
Ferrari
P2
16.5%
69%
75%
76%
P4
5
Lando NorrisNorris
McLaren
P5
1.7%
27%
69%
84%
P19
6
Lewis HamiltonHamilton
Ferrari
P6
1.8%
22%
65%
83%
P6
7
Max VerstappenVerstappen
Red Bull
P8
1.7%
14%
51%
80%
P2
8
Andrea Kimi AntonelliAntonelli
Mercedes
P16
7.2%
7%
21%
83%
P5
9
Franco ColapintoColapinto
Alpine
P10
<0.1%
<1%
5%
75%
P17
10
Liam LawsonLawson
Red Bull
P12
0.1%
<1%
5%
70%
P12
Qualifying forecastPredicted order
The top ten of the qualifying forecast, made before the session, with where each driver actually starts. The race forecast above uses the real grid.
#DriverPoleTop 5Top 10Starts
1
Andrea Kimi AntonelliAntonelli
Mercedes
27.6%
86%
97%
P16
2
Lando NorrisNorris
McLaren
19.9%
82%
97%
P5
3
George RussellRussell
Mercedes
18.4%
80%
97%
P1
4
Max VerstappenVerstappen
Red Bull
15.1%
78%
97%
P8
5
Oscar PiastriPiastri
McLaren
9.7%
68%
97%
P3
6
Lewis HamiltonHamilton
Ferrari
5.5%
53%
96%
P6
7
Charles LeclercLeclerc
Ferrari
2.6%
35%
94%
P2
8
Liam LawsonLawson
Red Bull
0.7%
10%
79%
P12
9
Pierre GaslyGasly
Alpine
0.1%
1%
40%
P7
10
Carlos SainzSainz
Williams
0.1%
1%
30%
P9
Championship projectionafter round 14
Antonelli leads Russell by 81 points with 225 still available over 9 races. The earliest it can be settled is round 17. Projected from 10,000 simulated seasons. The range under each total covers 8 in 10.
Drivers
DriverNowProjectedTitle
1
Antonelli
Mercedes
292
406368–444
91.4%
2
Russell
Mercedes
211
355312–395
8.3%
3
Leclerc
Ferrari
167
273233–315
0.2%
4
Hamilton
Ferrari
191
263229–298
0.1%
5
Norris
McLaren
186
254220–288
<0.1%
Constructors
ConstructorNowProjectedTitle
1
Mercedes
503
761696–820
99.7%
2
Ferrari
358
535474–599
0.2%
3
McLaren
306
495433–557
0.1%
4
Red Bull
204
307256–364
<0.1%
5
Alpine
68
13290–180
<0.1%
Read chances above 95% as very likely, not certain. When past seasons were replayed, projections that sure came true 14 times in 14, too few to tell 98% from 99.9%. How it was tested
Points after each round for the top five drivers. Solid lines are results so far, dashed lines the projection, and each shaded band the range 8 in 10 simulated seasons fall inside.
Swipe the chart sideways to see the projection.
AntonelliRussellLeclercHamiltonNorris
Track record
Every forecast is saved before the session and graded after the race.
Live forecasts
The chance the forecast gave the eventual winner at each step of the weekend, and whether its pick was right. Select a race to see its full forecast beside the result.
Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia2026 round 16 · won by Verstappen
Before practice13%pick Russell ✗
After practicenot available for this race
After qualifying70%pick Verstappen ✓
Azerbaijan Grand Prix2026 round 15 · won by Russell
Before practice11%pick Antonelli ✗
After practicenot available for this race
After qualifying54%pick Russell ✓
Before going live, it was tested on 65 past races, each forecast using only the races before it: its pick after qualifying won 44, and backing the car on pole won 39. How good is it?