Singapore Grand Prix2026 round 17 · won by Verstappen
Before practice18%pick Antonelli ✗
After practice11%pick Leclerc ✗
After qualifying41%pick Verstappen ✓
Probabilistic forecasts for every Formula 1 Grand Prix. Race, qualifying and championship chances, updated as the weekend goes on and graded after the race.
Round 17 · 2026 season
Singapore Grand Prix
Race finished Verstappen won. The forecast gave 41%.
Most likely winner
Max Verstappen
Red Bull · starts P1
41%
chance to win
Chance to winResult
Verstappen41%P1
Antonelli26%P3
Hamilton20%P6
Leclerc12%P2
Norris1%P4
Russell1%P9
Hadjar<1%P10
Piastri<1%P5
0%25%50%75%100%
Each percentage is that driver's share of wins in 10,000 simulated races, blended with the ranking's own odds. The nearer a car is to the chequered flag, the likelier the win.
- Before practice
- After practice
- After qualifying
- Race result
A new forecast is logged at each step of the weekend and graded once the race is run. How it works
Race forecast
The ten drivers expected to finish highest, from 10,000 simulated races. Win, podium, top 5 and top 10 are all counted from the same simulated finishing orders, so they always agree with each other.
#DriverGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10Result
1
Max VerstappenVerstappen
Red Bull
P1
40.8%
88%
96%
96%
P1
2
Andrea Kimi AntonelliAntonelli
Mercedes
P4
25.6%
78%
96%
96%
P3
3
Lewis HamiltonHamilton
Ferrari
P3
19.9%
72%
95%
96%
P6
4
Charles LeclercLeclerc
Ferrari
P2
12.1%
48%
94%
95%
P2
5
Lando NorrisNorris
McLaren
P5
0.6%
7%
41%
97%
P4
6
Oscar PiastriPiastri
McLaren
P6
0.1%
2%
17%
97%
P5
7
George RussellRussell
Mercedes
P21
0.5%
2%
32%
79%
P9
8
Isack HadjarHadjar
Red Bull
P22
0.3%
2%
19%
75%
P10
9
Liam LawsonLawson
RB
P8
<0.1%
<1%
4%
73%
P7
10
Pierre GaslyGasly
Alpine
P7
<0.1%
<1%
4%
67%
P11
Qualifying forecastPredicted order
The top ten of the qualifying forecast, made before the session, with where each driver actually starts. The race forecast above uses the real grid.
#DriverPoleTop 5Top 10Starts
1
Lando NorrisNorris
McLaren
21.6%
83%
>99%
P5
2
Charles LeclercLeclerc
Ferrari
19.8%
80%
>99%
P2
3
Lewis HamiltonHamilton
Ferrari
11.5%
64%
99%
P3
4
Andrea Kimi AntonelliAntonelli
Mercedes
11.6%
63%
99%
P4
5
Max VerstappenVerstappen
Red Bull
7.6%
48%
96%
P1
6
Oscar PiastriPiastri
McLaren
6.8%
44%
95%
P6
7
Isack HadjarHadjar
Red Bull
4.4%
29%
86%
P22
8
Pierre GaslyGasly
Alpine
1.6%
13%
56%
P7
9
George RussellRussell
Mercedes
9.8%
36%
51%
P21
10
Carlos SainzSainz
Williams
0.7%
5%
27%
P13
Championship projectionafter round 17
Antonelli leads Russell by 89 points with 150 still available over 6 races. The earliest it can be settled is round 19. Projected from 10,000 simulated seasons. The range under each total covers 8 in 10.
Drivers
DriverNowProjectedTitle
1
Antonelli
Mercedes
325
431403–458
99.9%
2
Russell
Mercedes
236
296270–322
0.1%
3
Verstappen
Red Bull
196
288258–319
<0.1%
4
Hamilton
Ferrari
221
277253–303
<0.1%
5
Leclerc
Ferrari
197
265239–292
<0.1%
Constructors
ConstructorNowProjectedTitle
1
Mercedes
578
744702–784
99.9%
2
Ferrari
444
569529–610
0.1%
3
Red Bull
332
466425–507
<0.1%
4
McLaren
339
438402–477
<0.1%
5
RB
100
122104–143
out
Read chances above 95% as very likely, not certain. When past seasons were replayed, projections that sure came true 14 times in 14, too few to tell 98% from 99.9%. How it was tested
Points after each round for the top five drivers. Solid lines are results so far, dashed lines the projection, and each shaded band the range 8 in 10 simulated seasons fall inside.
Swipe the chart sideways to see the projection.
AntonelliRussellVerstappenHamiltonLeclerc
Track record
Every forecast is saved before the session and graded after the race.
Live forecasts
The chance the forecast gave the eventual winner at each step of the weekend, and whether its pick was right. Select a race to see its full forecast beside the result.
Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia2026 round 16 · won by Verstappen
Before practice13%pick Russell ✗
After practicenot available for this race
After qualifying70%pick Verstappen ✓
Azerbaijan Grand Prix2026 round 15 · won by Russell
Before practice11%pick Antonelli ✗
After practicenot available for this race
After qualifying54%pick Russell ✓
Before going live, it was tested on 65 past races, each forecast using only the races before it: its pick after qualifying won 44, and backing the car on pole won 39. How good is it?